In the face of a crisis in Britain, can Boris Johnson's first phase sit for a few days?
If it wasn't for his former Oxford classmate and the then
Justice Minister's Michael Goff, Boris Johnson, who had messy blond hair, had
already entered the 10th Downing Street as early as three years ago.
In the "Century Theatre" of the Brexit referendum
in the spring of 2016, Johnson and Goff began to fight side by side, leading
the Brexit to win the shock of the world, and rushed David Cameron. station.
At that moment, the Brexit leader, Johnson, was the most
An optimistic candidate for the next prime minister in the UK. But at the last
moment of the Conservative Party's internal competition, Goff, who has been
helping Johnson for a long time, somehow suddenly felt that he also had a
chance to taste the prime minister's taste, which made the undefended Johnson
fall short.
In the end, Cameron’s ally and Teresa May, who advocated
staying in Europe, blocked Johnson’s “speculative” and made many people at the
top of the Conservative Party celebrate their hands. At that time, someone
wrote: This shows that the United Kingdom has not gone completely mad. As a
"consolation prize", Johnson, who can speak, was appointed Minister
of Foreign Affairs by Teresa May. This is a chore – the European colleagues who
deal with him will not easily forget his exaggerated performance during the
Brexit referendum.
Since then, Johnson’s internal hardliners, led by the
Conservatives have not stopped the constraints on Mei. They repeatedly
rejected the Brexit agreement between May and Brussels and on July 2018,
Johnson and another Minister of Brexit, David Davis, resigned within a day, The
"liquidation day" of the Meite cabinet has been included in the
countdown.
Although Mei has made many efforts since then, and even
vainly vowed to resign in exchange for the support of the parliamentarians to
support their retreat agreement, she can not stop the British from returning to
an unknown future.
1
Compared to the "Eaton Elite" of David Cameron and
George Osborne, even compared to Teresa May, Boris Johnson, 54 years old, is
not a prosperous act.
Since 2008, he has served as the mayor of London for eight
consecutive years. During that time, he left the most impressive impressions of
enlightened and close to the people - many Londoners have seen his fitness
exercises on the streets to commute to work. He was also proved to be a
successful and energetic city ambassador in the position of the mayor of
London, long held by the Labour Party.
Like most populist politicians in the world today, Johnson
is not a true grassroots. On the contrary, like Cameron and Osborne, he is also
a typical elite tempered in the Eaton-Oxford Training Camp. He is a versatile
scholar who used to cite ancient Greek and Roman classics in his speeches. His
unruly and sloppy words are also carefully designed. One biographer said that
he had seen Johnson deliberately messing up his hair before giving a speech and
pulling the shirt out of his pants. Even his blond hair was very untrue, and
once he admitted (and then recovered) he was carrying a golden hair color.
From time to time, Johnson will use a very naïve way to say
something that other people know well but will not say anything. This makes him
look like a clown, but this is precisely a unique talent, and his
self-deprecating nature makes him easy to win the favor of ordinary people.
Johnson, who
is full of grassroots star temperament, is one of the most insightful political
figures of this era.
Before being the mayor of London, in the 1990s, Johnson was
a well-known journalist and was the name of the BBC brand show Have I Got News
For You. During his tenure at the British "Daily Telegraph", he was a
journalist for the European Union, and he was known as a "Brussel
Beater" for writing exaggerated and false reports. Some people now think
that his strong Brexit position was laid at that time.
However, anyone familiar with the UK knows that a hostile
cynicism against the European continent is always popular in the UK.
Johnson was also the chairman of the Oxford Union. He still
wrote a fun column in his daily newspaper, The Daily Telegraph. He even wrote
about the erotic poetry of Turkish President Erdogan... To talk about speeches
and literary talents, there is no British political figure comparable to
Churchill (the hero of Johnson's mind).
What made Johnson smell the opportunity was 2016
referendum. At that time, he had just stepped down as the mayor of London. He
might have felt the call of fate from the rise of Donald Trump and Marlene Le
Pen, and Johnson’s “deformation” gave the careless Cameron and the whole of
England. A fatal blow.
To this day, the United Kingdom is still deeply mired in the
sloppy referendum three years ago, and there is no turning point in the future.
2
Regardless of Johnson’s hostility towards Europe, whether it
is his political self-interest, or indeed his true idea, at least in the past
three years, people have not seen the passionate Brexit party how the UK should
leave the European Union and after the Brexit. What to do, what clear plans
have been made. It now seems that Brexit is more like a mass movement that
dissipates dissatisfaction.
Regarding Brexit, Johnson published a strange "cake
theory": both supporting cakes and eating cakes. In other words, he seems
to believe that the UK can successfully break away from the EU and “embrace the
world” without making any difficult choices.
But now is
the time for him to be responsible for what he has done in the past three
years. Unfortunately, his set cannot stand any real test.
As a politician from a journalist, Johnson, like Trump, is
good at using ground-based, dramatic and vivid language to express exaggerated
and inconspicuous comments in areas he knows nothing about. Interestingly, his
former close comrade-in-arms and later Michael Goff, who turned against the
the enemy were also former reporters.
As early as the propaganda campaign before the Brexit
the referendum, Johnson tirelessly declared to the British voters that Brexit could
save the UK 350 million pounds a week, and the money can be invested in the
British National Health Service (NHS)... To this end, the National Bureau of
Statistics stated on September 2017, condemning this statement as nonsense to
deliberately mislead voters.
Nowadays, he shows that he is not paying attention to the
so-called "hard Brexit" (that is, "no agreement to leave the
EU", meaning that there is no special relationship between the UK and the
EU). On the one hand, he confidently claimed that he could reach a better
Brexit agreement with Brussels in the next few months. On the other hand, he
said to the public that if the new agreement cannot be reached, then "if
you are ready Good words, "the cost of leaving the EU without agreement
will be negligible." The UK “whatever happens” should break up with the
European Union on October 31.
Johnson seems to believe that after the Brexit, maintaining
a pure WTO partnership with the EU will not cause any damage to the UK. London
will still be a prosperous financial center, and the UK can also sign many
trade agreements with the “Anglo Cultural Circle” and the “Freedom” of the
Commonwealth. As for the temporary customs union plan to avoid a hard border in
Ireland, it must be canceled. The United Kingdom should pay the money it owes
to the EU, but it will not give it. It should also follow Mrs. Thatcher’s
practice and ask for a refund from Brussels...
So how do you do this? In Johnson's view, the fundamental
the problem in the Brexit negotiations is that the UK is not strong enough.
At a private dinner on June 2018, Johnson, who was also a
foreign minister at the time said: "Imagine letting Trump get the British
Brexit... he will be rampant... there will be various collapses and chaos.
Individuals think he is crazy. But you may have made progress. This is a very,
A very good idea."
What he means is that Britain should be as eager to
overthrow the table as Trump does, and the EU will follow suit and promise all
the demands of Britain. However, the problem is that in the three years of
Teresa May's administration, these methods have been used. Johnson, who was
then the foreign minister, did not know that the British negotiators repeatedly
shouted: "no agreement is better than a bad agreement." ... But
Brussels is simply not moving, just responding to the British demands coldly
and slowly in a way that they think is reasonable.
Later, the voice in the UK became weaker and weaker. Because
the technocrats understand that "no agreement to leave the EU" will
be disastrous, and key areas such as medicine, finance, and aviation will fall
into legal difficulties. Because the EU is much larger than the UK, its ability
to resist such disasters is also Stronger than the UK. Britain is not the
United States, and even if the United States does not have the
"blackmail" from the EU.
Johnson used to believe in another scene: there will be more
and more countries stepping out of the EU and the EU will be disintegrated,
which will make the Brexit become a natural event that does not require much
game... However, this has not happened. On the contrary, the internal quarrel
of the EU has shown a rare unity in the face of the United Kingdom.
In Brussels, EU officials have publicly stated that Boris
Johnson seems to live in a "fantasy" world.
3
What Johnson will take over is a more dangerous Britain than
his predecessor, so his time to sit on the British prime minister is likely to
be shorter and shorter. In the era of Mei, at least the ruling Conservative
Party has not been as fragmented and guilty as it is today.
Johnson has always played the role of "split" in
British politics, especially in the eyes of Conservative cabinet ministers and
congressmen who worked with him. Not only did Teresa May think he broke the
stability, but some former cabinet colleagues also had serious doubts about Johnson.
With the approach of the Brexit deadline on October 31, more than one
Conservative Party cabinet minister has already threatened in advance: If
Johnson is willing to go his own way and bring the United Kingdom into "no
agreement," they will be ready to fight and turn over. Johnson cabinet.
As Johnson wins, some cabinet ministers, including the
Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond, are likely to voluntarily resign or
be dismissed by Johnson. These "old parties" of Cameron and Theresa
May strongly opposed "no agreement to leave the EU", and will no
longer be opposed to Johnson's plan, just like all the plans of Johnson against
Mei in the past three years. same.
The current Minister of Health, Stephen Hammond, has even
publicly warned in an interview with the BBC that he will "very
cautiously" support the distrust of the government of his ruling party and
cannot rule out the possibility of proposing a no-confidence motion. If the
motion is passed, the United Kingdom will hold a general election and the Conservative
Party will launch a new candidate in the general election to replace Johnson.
According to the existing regulations, Conservative Party members can
theoretically vote against them when the new Prime Minister takes office.
The first clear sign that the government may be in turmoil
appeared last Thursday (July 18), with more than 30 Conservative members
refusing to comply with party orders. They joined forces with opposition
lawmakers to pass a motion aimed at preventing the Prime Minister from pushing
the non-agreement to leave the EU, that is, the Prime Minister cannot implement
the non-Agreement of Brexit by suspending the parliament.
Patten, the senior chairman of the Conservative Party, the
last governor of Hong Kong, and the current president of the University of
Oxford, once said that he will never forget all of this. "Brexit is the
worst event in the British political arena during my lifetime."
If this is the case, then "no agreement to leave the
EU" is destined to be a devastating event. The current British business
secretary, Greg Clarke, predicted last week that no agreement to leave the
European Union would result in the loss of “tens of thousands” of jobs and
undermine key economic sectors, including the food and automotive industries.
Sir Ivan Rogers, the former British ambassador to the European Union, warned
that the scale and duration of its destruction would be something that
developed countries have not experienced in past generations.
Johnson has always believed that these pessimistic
predictions are meaningless eschatology, but his tough remarks about "no
agreement to leave the EU" have led to the recent volatility of the
British pound exchange rate. On July 16, the exchange rate of the British pound
against the US dollar fell by 0.9% to 1.23, hitting a low of more than two
years. Throughout July, the pound has fallen by more than 2%.
In addition to the fact that the British economy, which has
almost fallen into recession, maybe hit hard by Brexit, another bigger threat
is the “real risk” of the disintegration of the United Kingdom. Scotland is the
most pro-European region in the UK, and it barely stayed in the United Kingdom
in an independent referendum more than six years ago. It is expected that if
the UK has no agreement to leave the EU, the Scots are likely to brew a second
independence referendum. At the moment, in Wales, where independence has long
been weak, some people are eager to move.
Even Johnson himself admits to the existence of these risks.
He claims that if he is elected prime minister, he will also wear the title of
the Union Minister. Unfortunately, this does not depend on him.
Although Johnson may have shown strong political magic, no
one believes that he succeeded in splitting Britain and he is now likely to
successfully cure this divided country. George Osborne, the British Chancellor
of the Chancellor of the Cameron era, and Johnson’s longtime political opponent
is now the editor-in-chief of the London Standard Evening News. He made a
headline to the headlines last week: "Baoyo: I have the magic of uniting
Britain. "The other Conservative MP, Keith Simpson, said: "The
problem with Boris is that he will always disappoint you."
4
The versatile Boris Johnson once wrote a biography of his
idol Winston Churchill, who wrote in this very interesting book: "To some
extent, all politicians are seeing The wind makes the rudder gambler. They try
to predict what will happen and let themselves stand on the right side of
history."
Johnson also said that Churchill "put all the family in
a fight called anti-Nazism... his bet has achieved brilliant success."
Today, Johnson also puts his family in a race that we can
call "European skepticism." For the time being, this seems to make
him stand on the right side of history. But this is only temporary. In the long
run, Johnson could not be another Churchill. Because Churchill is the
"leader" of public opinion, and Johnson is just the
"commend" of public opinion. Churchill led the UK to a brilliant
victory over fascism, and the British led by Johnson would only pay a very
expensive price from the Brexit adventure.
He stood on the wrong side of history.
The fundamental problem here is that today's Europe is not
the third empire or the Soviet Union that Johnson liked.
For a long time, the Brexit has always had another
expectation: if there is no agreement, the fact that the Brexit leads to a
shortage of food, fuel, and medicine, the United Kingdom will unite in the face
of adversity, just like the era of World War II. But this is not so much an
expectation as it is wishful thinking. Because Brexit is a matter of great
disagreement in the United Kingdom, it does not at all create the same enemy
that was desperately defeated by evil enemies for a just cause. The results of
the 52:48 referendum and the repeated "second referendum" over the
past three years mean that about half of the British will think that it is
Johnson, not Brussels, that is the real villain in this story.
Ironically, in the recent campaign, Sir Nichols Soames, the
grandson of Johnson’s most admired hero, Churchill, did not support him but
chose to support the only one against the no agreement. Breguet candidate Rory
Stewart. As one of the most senior and authoritative members of the
Conservative Party, Somes is a determined Europeanist. It is said that he is a
representative of Churchill's life. Anyone related to Churchill must
listen to his opinions.
Of course, there will be a lot of Conservatives who will
support Johnson for the time being, but only because he is the only winner in
the old party that seems to be falling apart. For the party's interests, they
also have to support him. But for Johnson, who has finally reached the top of
the twists and turns, he is now impossible to flutter like the opposition.
The so-called "I don't know Chai Migui", then he
will also taste the taste that David Cameron and Theresa May have tasted. But
Boris Johnson is not them. Under his leadership, this former empire will
probably go through a tragic journey, but it is not destined to be a boring
journey.
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