Gradually approaching population shrinking era: when fertility no longer needs planning (PART 2) ~ Katja News

Gradually approaching population shrinking era: when fertility no longer needs planning (PART 2)

Figure 8: The proportion of public kindergartens entering the park is always on the decline

Third, medical expenses continue to rise, it is difficult to see a doctor, and expensive to see a doctor. Due to environmental pollution, high living pressures, and an aging population, the prevalence of residents has increased year by year, and the symptoms have become more and more complicated. From 2000 to 2017, the total number of medical treatments increased from 2.123 billion to 8.18 billion, an increase of nearly 4 times, and the number of hospitalizations rose from 133 million to 245 million, an increase of 84%. The cost of hospital visits is also increasing year by year. In 2017, the per capita outpatient cost of hospitals was 257 yuan, and the per capita hospitalization expenses were 8891 yuan. The per capita health care expenditure of residents increased from 600 yuan in 2005 to 1777 yuan in 2017, which is among the expenditures of consumers. The fastest growth rate.

Exhibit 9: Total number of visits and health care spending is rising rapidly

Fourth, family miniaturization has increased the burden of support. The average household size dropped from 4.41 in the 1980s to 3.03 in 2017. The only child generation faced the “four two one” family structure, that is, a couple had to take care of four old people and one child, and the burden of family support increased. Will significantly reduce the willingness to have children.

4. changes in marriage patterns: marriage and childbearing age is postponed, single, divorce, Dink universal

The modern marriage model is changing. On the one hand, the increase in the proportion of women receiving higher education has lengthened the time for completing their studies, and the age of marriage and childbearing has been postponed. According to the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics, the number of female undergraduates in the country in 2017 was 14.47 million, accounting for 52.5% of the total number of undergraduates, up 4.7% compared with 2010. The number of female graduate students was 1.278 million, accounting for 48.4%, up 0.6 from 2010. %. Also, women choose to postpone marriage and childbirth during their career rise period. Late marriage and late child education have become common phenomena. According to data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the proportion of marriage registrations aged 20-24 in 2005-2017 fell from 47% to 22.9%, and the proportion of marriage registrations over 25 years old rose from 53% to 77.1%. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the average age of first marriage for women from 1990 to 2015 was postponed from 22 to 25.7, and the average age of female birth was postponed from 24.1 to 26.3. The average age of childbearing (including all children) was postponed from 24.8 years. To 28 years old. In the more developed cities, the late marriage and late childbearing performance are more obvious. For example, in 2015, the average age of first marriage for men in Shanghai was 30.3 years, and that for women was 28.4 years, which was 1.5 years and 1.9 years higher than that in 2010. The average age of female primary education is 29 years old, which is higher than that of developed countries such as the United States, Canada, and France.

Figure 10: The proportion of people under the age of 24 who are registered to marry is rapidly declining

Singleism has become popular, marriage rates have fallen, and divorce rates have risen. The rough marriage rate (the number of marriages per 1,000 people) peaked in 2013, falling from 9.9‰ to 7.7‰ in 2017. The crude divorce rate (the number of divorces per 1,000 people) is rising, from less than 1 in 2000 to 3.2 in 2017. The number of families who choose Dink after marriage is also increasing. Rough statistics show that there are about 600,000 Dink families in the country in 2018, Beijing households account for 10%, Shanghai households account for 13%, and Shenzhen households account for 12%.

Exhibit 11: The marriage rate peaked in 2013, and the divorce rate continued to rise.

Future population judgment: catching up with India in 2027 and peaking in 2031

On a global scale, China has entered the ranks of countries with low fertility rates. According to United Nations data, the global average total fertility rate (the average number of children per woman during childbearing age) has fallen from 3.2 in 1990 to 2.5 in 2019 and is expected to fall to 2.2 by 2050. Countries and regions with a higher total fertility rate than the 2.1 generation replacement include Sub-Saharan (4.6), Oceania without Australia and New Zealand (3.4), North Africa and West Asia (2.9), Central Asia and South Africa (2.4). China's total fertility rate is significantly lower than the global average and is also significantly lower than the generation replacement level. According to UN data, China's total fertility rate has dropped from 6.11 to 1.69 (with a minimum of 1.61 during the period) since 1950, while the US has fallen from 3.31 to 1.78, the UK has fallen from 2.18 to 1.75, Canada has fallen from 3.65 to 1.53, and Japan has fallen from 2.96. By 1.37, India fell from 5.90 to 2.24, which is not as fast as the decline in China's total fertility rate. Since 2015, due to the liberalization of the second-child policy, China’s total fertility rate has rebounded slightly faster than expected and is now higher than the average of 1.67 in high-income countries. But still lower than the United States (1.78), the United Kingdom (1.75), Australia (1.83), France (1.85) Developed countries such as New Zealand (1.90) are also lower than other emerging market countries such as Brazil (1.74), Russia (1.82), India (2.24), and South Africa (2.5). It is lower than other developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, such as Vietnam (2.06), the Philippines (2.58), Nigeria (5.42) and so on.

Figure 12: Trends and forecasts of total fertility in some countries of the world

The experience of developed countries shows that encouraging fertility policies is concerned with a long-term process that will only be effective if the policy system is intact, and it is difficult to reverse the low fertility rate in the short term. For countries with different cultures, countries with different levels of economic development, and people of different classes, the policy effects are different. Developed countries generally subsidize families to raise children by 2% to 5% of GDP. France has introduced a policy of encouraging births since 1939, but by 1995, the total fertility rate had dropped to 1.71, followed by a substantial increase in cash subsidies. The increase in maternity leave and holidays, as well as the improvement of childcare public services, began to rise to the level of 1.98. France can be said to be the most successful one in Europe to encourage fertility, but it took nearly 60 years from policy implementation to steady increase infertility, and it has been declining since 2015. Germany has also invested heavily in encouraging fertility, including that each child can bring an allowance of 7,428 euros/year or nearly 200 euros/month to the child until the child reaches adulthood at 18 years of age. Parenting holidays as common welfare for parents, Both parents can apply for a childcare holiday for up to 3 years and then return to their post. At the same time, they are also building a nursery school to avoid the worries of their parents. However, the encouragement of the birth policy has not achieved much effect. The low point of the German total fertility rate reached 1.3 in 2005, and it was only 1.41 in 2015, still significantly lower than the generation replacement level.

Some countries have to rely on immigration to maintain a stable fertility rate. In the United States, the birth policy is left to the states to decide, not the same, but immigration policy has always been an important part of the US population policy. The highest total fertility rate is Hispanic, which can reach 2.1 or so, followed by African Americans. The total fertility rate is around 1.9. The total white fertility rate is around 1.7. It is less than the overall level of the United States, and the Asian fertility rate will be lower. At the beginning of the 21st century, Singapore also faced the problem of rising childbearing costs and difficulties for women's professional families. For this reason, a package of measures to encourage marriage and childbirth was enacted, including helping single people find a partner, parenting priority housing plan, childcare cash reward, and maternity leave. System and so on. But there is also no tendency to reduce the decline infertility. In 2000, the total fertility rate in Singapore has been as low as 1.35 and further dropped to 1.21 in 2019, which is already the second-lowest in the world. The government pointed out in the public report that if new immigrants are not introduced, they will likely face a series of problems such as rapid population aging and shrinking labor population.

The rate of water inflow is getting slower and slower, and the speed of water coming out is getting faster and faster. The era of negative population growth will come earlier than expected. The United Nations predicts that the Chinese population will peak at around 2031 and then experience negative growth. Because the conditions for setting the total fertility rate are different, the estimated peak population time is slightly different. The current research agrees that there will be a negative population growth after ten years. According to the UN program, if the total fertility rate rises above 1.7, the Chinese population will reach a peak of 1.46 billion in 2031, and then begin to enter a sustained negative growth, which will decrease to 1.4 billion in 2050 and decrease to 1.258 billion in 2070. The scale to 1996. In 2100, it was reduced to 1.065 billion. The population has fallen to 1.172 billion, the equivalent of 1990. Some scholars have suggested that according to the total fertility rate of 1.5, the peak population of China will come around 2024. If the total fertility rate rises to 1.65 and 1.8, the peak population of China will be delayed until 2027 and 2031, and the peak size will not exceed 14.4. Billion.

Exhibit 13: The United Nations is expected to experience negative growth in the total population after about a decade

With the slowdown or even negative growth of the total population, China’s status as the world’s most populous country was replaced by India in 2027. According to the United Nations release of the World Population Prospects 2019, the current global population is 7.7 billion people and is expected to increase to 8.5 billion by 2030 and 9.7 billion by 2050. By 2100, the global population will be close to 10.8 billion. The population growth of different countries has been differentiated. The population of underdeveloped countries has the most growth. It is estimated that the top ten global population in the next 30 years will be: India, China, Nigeria, the United States, Pakistan, Indonesia, Brazil, Ethiopia, Congo (Kinshasa), Bangladesh... According to the forecast of the medium plan, the population of India will reach 1.469 billion by 2027, surpassing China's 1.461 billion people and becoming the world's largest population. By 2060, India's population will peak to 1.65 billion. The European population has a negative growth time ahead of China. It is expected to reach a peak around 2022 and then begin to decline. It will drop to 710 million by 2050 and 630 million by 2100. The US population has maintained a slow-growth trend, reaching 360 million by 2050 and reaching 430 million by 2100. Nigeria in Africa shows strong growth momentum, It is expected to surpass the United States in 2047 and become the third most populous country in the world. By 2050, the population will reach 400 million. In this century, the proportion of China's population in the world has dropped from 19% to 9%. The proportion of the population in sub-Saharan, Southeast Asia, and Latin America has risen rapidly. By the end of the century, the proportion of the population in the three regions has increased from 30% to 56%.

Exhibit 14: Forecasting that the population of India will exceed the Chinese population by 2027

Exhibit 15: China's population will decline from 19% to 9% at the end of the century

The decline in the population's water level has weakened the basic driving force for China's economic growth. The demographic dividend has entered the second half of the year, and the increase in the burden of social pension has become an urgent problem to be solved. But at the same time, we should also see that there are some structural opportunities, such as pushing for innovation and development, promoting the progress of health care, developing the single economy and the marriage industry. Faced with the challenges and opportunities brought about by demographic changes, we need to increase social welfare protection on the one hand, and increase investment in human capital such as education and health on the other, promote technological progress, and bring population size and human capital to a new level. Achieve dynamic balancing.

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