When we talk about technology stock investment, what are we talking about?
There are
ten fights in the US stock market and technology stocks account for eight
fights. Consumption and finance are divided into one fight, and the rest is
divided into one fight.
It has been more than ten years since the baby's bottom on
March 9, 2009. The S&P 500 Index, which is recognized as representing the
performance of the US stock market, from 676 to 2900+, is not a dividend and
has risen 330% in a decade.
It is recognized that the NASDAQ 100 Index, which represents
the performance of technology stocks in the US stock market, is not too pure,
as will be discussed later. From 1043 to 7600+, it has risen 620% in ten years.
The NASDAQ Internet Index (the weighted stocks of Google,
Facebook, Alibaba, Amazon, etc.) rose from a low of 2009 to 1000%, ten times a
decade. Undoubtedly, this bull market is essentially a big bull market for
technology stocks.
There is also a data, the MSCI World Technology Index, which
has increased its total market value by 5.7 trillion, $5.7 trillion since 2009.
Considering that the total market value of the A-share market, the world's
third-largest securities market, is only 6 trillion to 7 trillion, which is, of
course, an astronomical figure. But the 5.7 trillion figure is not as scary as
the technology stock itself, but 5 Microsoft, or 10 Facebook, or 13 Ali, or 27
Intel, or the most amazing - 40 Netflix-. This is a mystery, I am a big
country, the entire A-share market, adds up to equal 40 streaming media film
companies.
So you see that the technology stocks in the overseas market
are already big, and they are bloody. And those who invest in technology stocks
are even more profitable.
The other question that I have difficulty answering is: When
will A shares usher in the big bull market of our technology stocks?
First, the
definition of technology stocks
First of all, I think we have to give the technology ETF's
technology stock the next definition. The technology ETF English is called Tech
ETF, and of course, there is a so-called technology ETF like QQQ, which tracks
the Nasdaq 100 Index, including some biotechnology, medicine, and Starbucks.
Biotechnology is, of course, a kind of technology, but also cutting-edge
high-tech; but it is a bit shameful to call a coffee shop a technology stock.
So true technology or fake technology, as investors want to polish their eyes;
if your mind is technology = Internet, then the PNQI tracking the Nasdaq
Internet Index is far from suitable for tracking the QQQ of the NASDAQ 100.
Of course, some people will come to blame me: the fee is so
dry, the heavyweights are the same big ones anyway, the difference is not bad.
This criticism is right, but I am pursuing purity. If you don't have the spirit
of cleansing in this area, the difference between these ETFs is really small.
Why, because of the weight of the leading stocks in the industry and the high
industry dynamics brought about by its performance, most of the Alphas are
already in the bag.
However, there is no authoritative definition of the
financial investment community for the technology ETF and the “technology” in the
technology industry. The energy industry is easy to define, but when it comes
to the entropy of the whole system that converts chemical energy into heat
through the formation and breaking of chemical bonds, you are doing the
traditional energy industry; if you are using energy other than the above
methods What you are doing is the new energy industry. But what does the
technology industry say, solar panels have no technological content? Does
Jiujiang Soymilk have no scientific content?
Modern science and technology brought about by the
the industrial revolution, with a seven-character song in the "Dream of Red
Mansions" in the "Dream of Red Mansions", is that you sing and
sing, I debut and recognize that his hometown is his hometown. Fighting the
stars, internal iterations, external revolutions, global sharing.
Its transformation is an evolutionary history. Every era has
its technology, just like the rail transport of the 19th century, the space and
energy of the 19th and 20th centuries, and the IT of the 20th and 21st
centuries; and a mature capital market will be like a gossip mirror. Really
"technology." The chart below represents the industry weights of the
US stock market since 1800, from transportation (mainly railways, cars and aerospace)
to energy (internal combustion engines, electrical revolution) and materials
(new polymer materials) to information technology. It can be said that
technology and capital are two sides of a coin.
And the technology that belongs to our time, anyone can see
that it is IT, the Internet... Well, I have a god stick on the right-hand side
to say the blockchain, then add a blockchain (manual dog head). Therefore, this
is exactly the definition of convention and ignorance in the US technology
industry. From the beginning of semiconductors to computer hardware and
software, to IT and the Internet, this line has become the backbone of
technology.
In this industry, there have been two peaks in life so far.
The first one appeared around 2000, and history is called the Dotcom Bubble.
The second one is at this moment. This is the technology of our time and
belongs to our Kaiyuan prosperity.
So we can define the word of technology as above, which is a
common example of tech in the US stock market. Of course, you can also join
biotechnology, just as there are some biotech companies in the Nasdaq 100. The
The 21st century is indeed the century of biology. Many people may use this stem to
ridicule the biology that graduated or lost. They understand that there is a
mistake. The 21st century is the century of biology, but no one says it is the
century of students.
The so-called technology in this article, IT+Bio is also.
Second, the
history of changes in capital and technology dance
FAMA represents the acronym for the five company giants with
the highest listing value on the planet. They are Facebook, Apple, Microsoft,
Alphabet (the parent company of Google), and Amazon. If you go back ten years,
this abbreviated acronym is an investment opportunity for Jinshan Yinshan.
But if you think of the behemoths of these rich and powerful
countries (the permanent members), the oldest Microsoft is only 44 years old,
the smallest Facebook is only 15, not yet adult. In the past, we thought of the
giants on the earth, always thinking of a hundred-year-old shop like Citigroup
Mobil Pfizer; or at least the holding companies of Berkshire Hathaway, which
are all over the years. The accumulation. The technology group is the first
time in human history.
The following picture is very shocking. The top ten
companies in the world market value, 1235 and 7.8 are all technology companies,
and the ninth is the financial payment company Visa, which is the hottest
technology. It is the big company JJ of 21 Bio Century.
And then the picture below will have more dramas of Baiyun
Cang Dog, Fighting Stars, and Wuhai Wushan. This picture reflects the changes
in the top 10 global market capitalization list from 1999 to 2019. During the
Internet bubble in 1999, the technology leaders Microsoft, Cisco, Intel, and
Nokia all saw the top of the valuation. At that time, everyone was unrealistic
about the Internet and IT communication, and Nokia was considered awkward.
After the Internet bubble, the old economy resumed. After
9/11, oil prices soared from $20 to $140, and Mobil, BP, and GE returned to the
throne. At the same time, the US housing price bubble splashed, Citigroup, AIG,
and other financial institutions hit the peak of valuation; after the rise of
our great powers, PetroChina and ICBC joined hands in 2009 and 2010; and in
2014, at the high oil price of 100 US dollars, before Apple, who has not been
on the list, has turned Mobil into the second child through the iPhone. Later,
technology stocks gradually climbed, and the old economy went with the wind,
from the subprime crisis to the oil price collapse and then to the big
countries. Up to now, FAMGA has unified the rivers and lakes, I do not know if
it will last forever.
Most of these technology stocks have been criticized and not
understood. The most famous is that Buffett’s "I don't understand, I don't
vote." Some people think that a "website" like Facebook does not
have a moat, and death is said to die. However, they don't have a deep understanding
of Facebook, and they don't care about the dazzling layout expansion; they
concentrate on thinking: breaking the website and not understanding. Domestic
ugliness and disregard of Facebook are even more confusing. Three people become
tigers, without independent thinking, the essence of most human beings is the
repeater.
Third, why
should we invest in technology stocks?
Technology often means monopoly, and monopoly often means
extremely high profits – accurately expressed in economic jargon – is economic
profit. Economic profit takes into account opportunity costs, which is the
biggest difference between accounting profits. In an industry that is generally
fully competitive and has no threshold, the economic profit is zero because its
accounting profit is equal to the opportunity cost. For an introduction to this
concept, I have already written an article in the introduction of the TMT
investment strategy of the hedge fund Coatue, and I will take a look at it.
The TMT industry has its unique value creation model. But
before blowing this model, I need foreplay to layout an important concept
called "economic profits" (calculated as net operating profit minus
capital cost).
Accounting calculates the profit, that is, the income minus
the cost; while the economics of the bar is calculating the profit, it is the
income minus the “all costs”, especially the opportunity cost.
For example, Dongle invested 100,000 yuan in a tea shop and
earned 100,000 yuan a year in a small store. This 100,000 is an accounting
profit, which seems to be slightly small. But Dongge’s tea shop has other
hidden opportunity cost losses – for example, if you don’t open a store, the
100,000 deposit bank can get two thousand interest; another Dong Ge is a
business wizard, if his energy is put In operating a large listed company, he
can earn one billion a year. From this, for Dongge, the "economic profit"
of the tea shop = 100,000 pieces of income - the opportunity cost of two
thousand pieces of funds - the opportunity cost of one billion pieces of human
resources = nearly one billion losses.
Fully and realistic consideration of opportunity cost is the
the biggest bright spot of economic profit, so it can be said that economic profit
is the most extreme concept of profit, and all costs are included. We can even
say that only companies that can create economic profits can say that they have
created "value"; and if profits are not able to match the cost of
capital, that is, the destruction of value, it should be destroyed by humanity.
You may feel that the concept of economics is boring, but it
is very useful in industry analysis. Economic profit can help us find a good
industry and good track.
Industries with low economic profits must be fully
competitive industries. There are fewer wolves and fewer thresholds. The
industry with high economic profits must be a high threshold to limit
competition. Of course, as mortal people have one death, in the long run, all
industries will end up with the same goal - the final economic profit will be
dried to zero. Because as long as you have economic profits, there will be
people who want to do everything possible and cut their feet. Therefore, the
long-term development of old industries, such as railways, can even be a
negative profit, and profits cannot cover the cost of capital.
But the emerging TMT industry has been gifted in recent
years of creating economic profits.
McKinsey has surveyed 2,400 listed companies worldwide and
runs through 59 industries, while TMT's five segments: software, consumer
electronics, media, telecommunications, and cable operators are on the rise in
economic profits (see below) ). If your investment avoids technology companies
- of course, you can stick to "do not know what to vote for", I can't
refute - your tongue will also avoid the most delicious cream on the cake.
According to McKinsey's projections, the economic profit of the TMT industry
has increased more than 100 times from 2000 to 2014.
This is dummy text. It is not meant to be read. Accordingly, it is difficult to figure out when to end it. But then, this is dummy text. It is not meant to be read. Period.
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